Thailand?s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra resignation this month is a major opportunity for investors willing to step into a temporary political vacuum.
The Prime Minister?s surprise announcement came after a meeting with the symbolically powerful King of Thailand, Bhumibol Aduljadej, at his seaside palace. The King has presided over Thailand since 1946 and is revered by all.
As in the past when the political temperature reaches boiling point, a curt nod from the King is enough to send even the most imperious Prime Minister packing. This safety valve is a key part of Thailand?s constitutional monarchy which helps it to maintain stability in times of a crisis.
Investors should not stay on the sideline until a new premier is selected when parliament resumes within the next 30 days but should act now to take advantage of an undervalued Thai market.
With a land area more than twice the size of Wyoming, Thailand is a youthful solid middle-income country with a consumer-oriented middle class. Its economy is well diversified, is rich in natural resources, and has a vibrant manufacturing sector and strong exports.
While many Asian markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan are hitting multi-year record highs, the Thai market has lagged due largely to the political turmoil. GDP growth for 2006 should match or better last years 4.5% number and fuel subsidies have been cut relieving pressure on the national budget. International capital flows to Thailand remained stable during the crisis but will likely ramp up quickly once calm is restored.
History shows that that the Thai market is both resilient and explosive. Thailand?s benchmark index rose 115% in 2003.
I suggest investors use the closed-end Thai Fund (TF) managed by Daiwa Securities which is trading at a 2% premium with a share price of $9.75 down from a 52-week high of $11.32.
The King has acted, so should you.